Toolkit Outline for Mortality Estimation and Surveillance in Humanitarian Settings

Background

Accurately estimating mortality in humanitarian crises is essential for understanding the scale of a crisis, guiding resource allocation, and informing timely interventions in order to save lives and prevent suffering. The Humanitarian Mortality Estimation and Surveillance Initiative, an initiative funded by USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance and led by Save the Children, focuses on operationalizing mortality estimation and surveillance in humanitarian settings. Our work will ensure that humanitarian responses are better informed and more effective through timely and relevant capture and use of critical excess mortality estimations.

The initiative vision is for:

1. Field-driven primary data collection methods for mortality estimation to be routinely used by health actors to inform, adapt and improve their humanitarian (health) programming
2. Humanitarian public health actors to be confident and well supported to integrate mortality estimation into their work in a standardized way through the development of straight forward tools and training suitable for humanitarian settings
3. The NGO home to sustainably drive the initiative vision, where methods, tools, training can live and be rolled out from

In the foundational year, the initiative will undertake the following:

• Literature review to provide a comprehensive overview of mortality estimation methods used in humanitarian crises, offering insights into which methods are most effective and appropriate under various conditions.
• Qualitative Review will use key informant interviews and/or focus group discussions.The review will focus on understanding barriers and challenges to mortality estimation from organizations working in humanitarian settings and initiatives with mortality estimation components or experience with large interagency trainings or technical support units or rosters.
• White Paper will combine findings from qualitative review and literature review into easily digestible key themes alongside suggested solutions for the initiative to address. The paper will be externally facing, communicating the initiative findings to the wider humanitarian community.
• Road Map will take the key themes from the White Paper and outline the strategy for the future of the initiative, based on solutions presented in the White Paper. The Road Map will be a purely strategic document, detailing key milestones and tangible actions needed to achieve the initiative vision.
• Toolkit Outline collating available mortality estimation methodology for various humanitarian contexts beginning with a decision-making algorithm for users to follow. Users will be guided to the most appropriate methodology for their context and provided with step-by-step guidance and standardized tools to support their activities.

It is important for the consultant to understand the linkages to the above workstreams, however, these Terms of Reference relate to the Toolkit outline only.

Toolkit

The Mortality Estimation Toolkit will be designed to assist humanitarian health organizations in justifying the decision to carry out mortality estimation and selecting the most appropriate methodology for their specific context. It will provide a structured, clear process that will guide users through data collection, analysis, and the practical application of the findings. With a strong operational focus, the toolkit must be accessible and usable by both epidemiologists and non-epidemiologists, including health specialists and monitoring, evaluation, accountability, and learning (MEAL) professionals. It will be tailored to meet the needs of humanitarian NGOs and civil society organizations (CSOs), equipping them with the tools to make informed decisions, conduct reliable mortality estimations, and effectively apply the data to inform their programming and decision-making.

Key Components of the Toolkit

• Decision Making Algorithm: At the heart of the toolkit will be a decision-making algorithm that will help users select the most appropriate mortality estimation method, whether based on surveillance systems, retrospective household surveys, or other methodologies. For each method, the toolkit will provide tailored tools, templates, and resources, leveraging existing materials where applicable, and offering clear guidance on how to use, adapt, and implement these resources effectively.
• Operational focus: The toolkit will also place a strong emphasis on operational tools, such as budgeting templates and data dissemination plans, to ensure that the results of mortality estimations can be integrated practically into an organization’s operations. Ultimately, the toolkit will empower organizations with the knowledge, methodologies, and resources they need to carry out reliable mortality estimations and leverage those findings to strengthen their work in humanitarian contexts.
• Leverage existing resources: There are many useful resources and tools existing in the mortality estimation and surveillance space. The toolkit should make good use of these and avoid duplicating or creating new tools where it is not needed. The technical toolkit task team will work with the consultant identify these.
• Best practice guidance and tips: The toolkit should support users with the application and adaptation of the tools and templates provided in the form of short guidance, tips and where appropriate case studies.
• Case studies: Where relevant and beneficial to support implementation of the methodology, we propose to have a limited number of case studies. How and when these should appear in the toolkit will need to be further discussed.
• Independent implementation**:** Eventually, the initiative will develop a comprehensive training package to support the rollout of the toolkit, ensuring that users are equipped with the necessary skills and knowledge to effectively implement the tools and methodologies outlined in the toolkit within their organizations. However, the toolkit must be created in a way that enables independent use without receiving this training.

Significant work has already been started on the algorithm draft by members of the Technical Advisory Group (TAG). The consultant will be expected to build on this foundation, collaborating closely with the toolkit task team, and managing and implementing feedback from both the TAG and the NGO advisory group (NAG) to refine and enhance the algorithm as part of the broader toolkit development process.

Consultancy Deliverables

The deliverable for this Terms of Reference is a detailed outline of the Toolkit only. The full development of the toolkit will take place in the subsequent year August 2025 onwards.

1. Work Plan and Timeline with Feedback Periods

• Create a detailed work plan that includes key milestones, timelines, and feedback periods for each phase of the toolkit development.
• Align work periods with governance and task team feedback cycles to ensure timely revisions and approvals.

Deliverable: Detailed work plan, including a timeline with feedback points incorporated.

2. Toolkit Purpose and Scope Document

• Define the overall goals, end user (epidemiologists, health specialists, MEAL professionals), and operational focus of the toolkit through consensus with the Toolkit Task Team.
• Ensure it is clearly aligned with the intended use in humanitarian contexts and considers the best approach for the content to be utilised in emergency settings by the target user.

Deliverable: Document outlining the toolkit’s objectives, target audience, and operational focus reviewed and signed off by the Toolkit Task Team and wider TAG.

3. High-Level Structure Outline

• Develop an outline that organizes the toolkit into core sections (e.g., introduction, decision-making algorithm, methodology selection, data collection, operational tools).
• Ensure each section is logically structured for usability and corresponds to the decision-making algorithm, defining the key methodologies to focus on.
• Identify and place existing resources in the core sections and gaps where additional resources will need to be created by the initiative.

Deliverable: High-level structure document with clearly defined sections signed off by Toolkit Task Team and wider TAG.

Detailed Outline

• Further develop the agreed high-level outline, building out details of what each section will look like
• This should include: a detailed descriptions of mortality estimation methods to be included in the toolkit, supporting operational tools and templates, tips and guidance descriptions, existing resources for this method, any identified case studies etc.
• The outline should detail what new tools (e.g., data collection forms, survey templates) need to be created by the initiative where they do not already exist or need to be adapted.
• Provide detailed descriptions for relevant operational tools (e.g., budgeting templates, data dissemination plans) that need to be developed.
• Curate and, where necessary, identify new case studies that demonstrate the application of mortality estimation methods in real-world humanitarian settings and their best placement in the toolkit.

Deliverable: Detailed outline document with clearly defined sections signed off by Toolkit Task Team and wider TAG.

Interactive Features Planning and Design

• During development of the detailed outline, incorporate descriptions of possible placement of interactive features throughout that could enhance a practical and user-centred experience for the future interactive toolkit.

Deliverable: include a concept throughout the detailed outline of how interactive features for the online toolkit could be included during full development.

Collaboration with Initiative Governance Groups, Toolkit Task Team and Interactive Toolkit Vendor

• Actively collaborate with the initiative’s governance structure (TAG, NGO advisory group) and the toolkit task team to incorporate feedback at key milestones, ensure the toolkit aligns with initiative objectives, and refine content accordingly.
• Take part in occasional collaboration session with chosen vendor for development of the interactive toolkit.

Deliverable: Demonstration and documentation of regular collaboration and feedback sessions with advisory groups and task teams as directed and supported by Save the Children.

Governance & Collaboration

• Check-ins: Consultant will attend check-ins with the toolkit task team to review progress and ensure alignment with expectations.
• TAG & NGO Advisory Group Engagement: At key stages (high level outline and detailed outline), the consultant will seek feedback from the TAG and NGO advisory group to ensure the toolkit aligns with user needs.
• Version Control: Feedback from each review cycle will be incorporated, with versions of the toolkit and related resources shared with all stakeholders.
• Final Review and Approval: After incorporating all feedback, a final review period will be conducted before the toolkit outline is fully approved by the Steering Committee.

Proposed High Level Timeline

Deliverable (Suggest LOE: 20 days)

• Work Plan and Timeline – 2 days (Due: January 2025)
• Toolkit Purpose and Scope Document – 3 days (Due: February 2025)
• High-Level Structure Outline – 5 days (Due: March 2025)
• Detailed Outline (with interactive features) – 10 days (Due: May 2025)

Skills and Experience

Essential

• Academic and/or technical background in health, public health and/or field epidemiology
• Significant experience leading and/or evaluations humanitarian health programming for NGOs, UN agencies in humanitarian settings
• Significant experience in developing humanitarian guidance and toolkit, especially thematic and technical toolkits (please provide examples)
• Ability to collaborate with and integrate technical and operational feedback from multiple subject matter experts and intended user of the tool (humanitarian actors) to achieve the highest quality deliverables
• Demonstrated knowledge and application of selecting and implementing optimal learning and development approaches to meet the original objectives of the toolkit e.g. operational focus, user-friendly and adaptable to diverse humanitarian emergency contexts.
• Excellent English oral and written skills and ability to communicate to variety of audiences (other language skills highly desirable)
• Skills in using online platforms such as Teams, SharePoint etc.
• Ability to plan for and meet deadlines
• Flexibility to work across various time zones

Desirable

• Experience in designing and implementing mortality surveillance systems and/or surveys
• Experience in developing interactive online guidance and/or toolkits in the humanitarian sector

How to apply

Please submit your CV and letter of application to Fasika Gebru at Fasika.gebru@savethechildren.org detailing how you would approach this assignment (2-5 pages) and your daily rate by January 17th, 2025.