Baseline Evaluation External Consultant – NEST Project

Terms of Reference (ToR) Baseline Evaluation External Consultant

Project: Nonviolent Engagement for Sustainable Transformation (NEST)

1. Introduction

Nonviolent Peaceforce (NP) seeks an external evaluator to conduct a baseline study for the NEST project, covering a multi-country initiative running from 01 June 2024 to 31 December 2031. The Baseline study is crucial in establishing reference values for the project’s performance and setting a foundation for adaptive programming and policy influencing initiatives focusing on regional and global policy analysis rather than traditional in-country activity-level data collection.

2. About NP

NP is an international non-governmental organization (NGO) committed to enhancing the security and dignity of civilians affected by violent conflicts through Unarmed Civilian Protection (UCP). NP’s mission is to reduce violence and protect civilians, helping transform the global response to conflict. In partnership with local groups, NP applies proven nonviolent strategies to protect human rights, deter violence, and help create space for local peacemakers to carry out their work.

3. NEST Project Description

The NEST Project is a multi-year initiative spanning four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), South Sudan, Sudan, and Iraq. This ambitious project aims to reduce violence, enhance civilian protection, and promote sustainable peace in regions affected by prolonged conflict. The project has a significant focus on influencing policies related to the safety and security of civilians, both in the locations as well as institutional settings like the United Nations.

The context for the project arises from the ongoing instability, violence, or lack of effective civilian protection in these regions, creating a pressing need for innovative and nonviolent approaches to conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Conventional approaches to security, often reliant on force, have failed to address many of the root causes of conflict in these countries and, in some cases, have exacerbated the situation. The exclusion of local communities, particularly marginalized groups such as women and youth, from decision-making processes further perpetuates instability. This highlights the need for a shift in focus toward nonviolent, community-driven solutions that enable local actors to take the lead in ensuring their own protection and fostering sustainable peace.

The project uses two key implementation strategies, each grounded in a clear intervention logic or Theory of Change:

• The first is an evidence-based policy influencing approach, focused on themes like protection in transitional settings, localized protection responses, and gender in civilian protection. This strategy strengthens community, organizational, and cross-sectoral capacities to advocate for civilian-centred protection and nonviolent conflict prevention. It also aims to increase stakeholder understanding of UCP and foster the participation of conflict-affected communities in security-related policies.
• The second strategy centres on adaptive, locally led programming to address country-specific needs while supporting an integrated, cross-country approach. This involves supporting local advocacy efforts, mobilizing networks of practitioners and supporters, and enhancing collective learning around culturally appropriate models of unarmed security. The strategy also supports the implementation of preventive and response actions to enhance community security through nonviolent means.

Together, these strategies align with the project’s Theory of Change, contributing to a paradigm shift away from force-centric protection approaches and toward locally led, nonviolent, and relational forms of security. Ultimately, this approach aims to build sustainable, community-driven solutions to complex security challenges in conflict-affected regions.

4. Purpose

The NEST Project is being implemented over an eight-year period, from 01 June 2024 to 31 December 2031, and will include three key evaluations:

1. Baseline study (must be complete by mid-March 2025): The baseline study will establish the initial data against which future project progress will be measured. This includes collecting both quantitative and qualitative data on NPs organisational structure and practices related to the project’s thematic working methods and priorities, policy influencing impact, as well as adaptive programming and locally led development approaches.
2. Mid-Term Review (analysing the impact of the period from 01 June 2024 – 30 June 2028): The MTR will assess the project’s progress, evaluate its effectiveness, and provide recommendations for the remaining project period.
3. Endline Evaluation (analysing the impact of the period from 01 July 2028 – 31 December 2031): The final evaluation will assess the overall impact of the project, its sustainability, and its contribution to long-term peace in the target areas.

External evaluators will play a critical role in ensuring that evaluations are conducted in line with IOB quality criteria and that the findings inform both the current project and future programming.

5. Evaluation Contract and Scope

The initial contract outlined in this TOR pertains to the meta-level baseline study, with the potential for extension to include the Mid-Term Review and Endline Evaluation, based on the success and quality of the baseline evaluation. The initial appointment will thus focus on the baseline study, with the possibility of extending the contract for up to eight years to cover all three evaluations. The Executive Director will be responsible for supervising the contract.

The baseline should reflect on NP’s adaptive programming, thematic working methods, and the role of locally led protection and advocacy practices. Emphasis should be on regional/global advocacy and programmatic components over country-level analysis. As such, experience in policy-influencing program evaluations is essential, with the consultant required to provide an example of similar past work.

NP will prioritise bids that incorporate a mixed methods approach, where both quantitative and qualitative data are explored. A stronger focus on narrative, thematic descriptions, and policy analysis instead of exhaustive country-level data collection is expected.

To realise the evaluation objectives, the consultant must be prepared to ensure their approach is responsive to relevant country contexts and access constraints. When analysis is required in country contexts, NP will provide a shortlist of key stakeholders as suggested starting points for key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs).

The baseline study will emphasize the following four core objectives at the global and regional level, with anticipated time requirements for each objective:

1. Increase policy support, recognition, and funding for unarmed approaches for the security of people and communities: NP’s policy and advocacy initiatives have made significant progress in securing recognition within influential global policy forums such as the United Nations and the European Union. Under the NEST project, these efforts are expanding within these existing fora and into new regions, particularly targeting policymakers in the MENA region and the African Union (AU), thereby broadening NP’s engagement with stakeholders supporting unarmed security approaches.

This component of the baseline evaluation will focus on establishing a baseline for advocacy and policy recognition by assessing current policy frameworks as well as institutional support essential for promoting nonviolent security methods. The evaluation will primarily involve a comprehensive analysis of current policies, institutional attitudes, and ongoing discussions surrounding UCP and related civilian-centred/nonviolent protection approaches across key national, regional and international institutional platforms. Additionally, the evaluation will assess NP’s policy influencing processes and strategies, evaluating the effectiveness of these approaches in advancing nonviolent safety and security approaches within international and regional platforms. The evaluation will include:

• A desk review of key policy documents and discussions in major global and regional forums, with emphasis on the past decade of policy developments.
• Data analysis on funding patterns and resource allocation for nonviolent security initiatives.
• An assessment of NP’s policy influencing process and strategies, including methods, reach, and effectiveness in shifting policy perspectives.
• KIIs and/or FGDs with policymakers, advocacy partners, and funding bodies to gain qualitative insights.

The estimated time for data collection and analysis, including desk reviews and KIIs, is approximately 3-4 weeks. This foundational assessment will support NP in tracking and enhancing advocacy impacts on policy support, recognition, and funding for unarmed civilian protection approaches across regional and global contexts.

1. Enhance collective learning and critical evidence, articulating exemplary, culturally appropriate models of unarmed approaches to security: Conduct a thematic analysis of NP’s existing learning frameworks and evidence-gathering practices, focusing on collective knowledge development and the articulation of effective, context-sensitive models for unarmed security. This analysis should provide an overview of NP’s current institutional practices as it relates to how learning and evidence is integrated into programming with communities, how it is understood and shared internally, and how it is communicated and shared with external stakeholders. Approximately 2-3 weeks to review existing documentation, gather insights from NP’s program and policy teams, and conduct FGDs or KIIs with key stakeholders on best practices and learning models.
2. Mobilize national and regional networks of practitioners, researchers, and supporters around unarmed approaches to security and nonviolence: Evaluate the scope and strength of NP’s national and regional networks covered by the project, including partnerships with practitioners, research institutions, and advocacy groups, to determine baseline capacities for collaborative, nonviolent security efforts. Approximately 2-3 weeks to map existing networks, conduct interviews with regional and national network members, and assess collaboration mechanisms and support structures in place.
3. Implement preventive and response actions that enhance security for people and communities through nonviolent means: Establish baseline metrics for NP’s current nonviolent protection efforts, preventive actions, and responsive measures aimed at community security countries covered by the project, analyzing how these methods can inform global and regional policy changes. Approximately 3-4 weeks for document review, analysis of NP’s current nonviolent methods, and data collection through consultations with NP’s field teams and partners.

Given the very new status of our stakeholder relations in some country programmes and thematic working areas, effective relationship management is a critical component of this evaluation. The consultant will be expected to approach stakeholder engagement with sensitivity and cultural awareness, recognizing the importance of building trust and fostering collaboration with local actors, government representatives, and other key stakeholders. Establishing strong relationships will be crucial for gathering accurate data and ensuring stakeholder buy-in, which will ultimately support the success of the baseline study and the overall project. The consultant must demonstrate the ability to navigate complex and evolving contexts, maintaining open lines of communication with all involved parties while respecting the perspectives and needs of local communities and partners.

Successful evaluators and affiliated organisations cannot have been involved in the design or implementation of the project under evaluation – either with NP for implementation or at the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Additionally, they must maintain complete impartiality with no vested interest in the ultimate outcome of the evaluation.

6. Evaluation Objectives

The evaluation aims to support NP in laying a solid foundation for its work on the NEST Project by providing foundational analysis from which NP can monitor and evaluate the impact of the NEST project. The baseline will set NP up to measure the project against the relevant OECD/DAC evaluation criteria, including relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability. It will follow the IOB’s 2024 Evaluation Quality Criteria to ensure methodological rigor and transparency. The primary users of the evaluation results include funders and policymakers, as well as other stakeholders—importantly, affected communities and partners—who will utilize these results to inform and shape ongoing and future project interventions.

One key objective of the evaluation is the establishment of reference values, which involves collecting and documenting baseline data against the results framework that NP will provide. The baseline data will respond to both quantitative and qualitative indicators that measure the project’s key outcomes, such as civilian protection, community resilience, and peacebuilding capacities across countries covered by the project. The consultant is also expected to provide recommendations on how to improve the results framework, enhancing its robustness and ensuring that it effectively captures the project’s intended outcomes. The baseline will also aim to refine the set of learning questions that NP has developed. The consultant’s role will be to ensure these questions are well-suited to effectively guide the project’s learning and drive continuous improvement.

The baseline study will also include methodological notes to ensure transparency in data collection approaches. Additionally, the consultant will, where feasible, facilitate access to their tools and databases, enabling NP to monitor progress against the baseline between evaluations. These elements will help NP and other stakeholders understand the evaluation methodology, contributing to accountability and enabling the replication of good practices in similar contexts.

7. Evaluation Deliverables

The consultant is expected to provide the following:

• Inception Report and Work Plan: Outline the proposed methodology, data collection tools, and work plan, including a timeline for all baseline activities (e.g., data collection, piloting, reporting).
• Desk Review: Conduct a desk review of all relevant project documentation to contextualize the project and incorporate baseline data about result indicators.
• Refinement of Evaluation Questions and Methodology: Refine the evaluation questions and methodology in alignment with IOB criteria.
• Enumerator Training Materials and Workshops: Develop training materials and facilitate training workshops for enumerators/sub-contractors.
• Coordination of Logistics: Coordinate all logistics with NP for data collection, including field visits and interviews.
• Data Management: Develop templates for data entry and implement procedures for secure data management.
• Data Collection and Oversight: Oversee systematic data collection, ensuring sufficient information sources to minimize bias.
• Data Cleaning and Analysis: Conduct data cleaning and analysis, including comparative analysis with previous project phases.
• Baseline Report: Submission of a comprehensive baseline study report in line with IOB standards, including:
  1. Baseline values for qualitative and quantitative indicators.
  2. A refined results framework.
  3. Methodological notes and recommendations.
• Final Baseline Report and Feedback: Integrate feedback from NP and the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs into the final baseline report.
• Ethical Compliance: Ensure compliance with NP’s ethical standards throughout the consultancy, including safeguarding and data privacy protocols.

8. Timeframe and Key Dates

The consultancy will be conducted over four months, starting in December 2024, with the final baseline study Report to be ready to submit to the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with NP and the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ revisions and feedback incorporated, by 31 March 2025.

9. Budget and Resources

The consultant is expected to provide a budget breakdown for the baseline study, as well as indicative costs for the Mid-Term and Endline evaluations. NP will cover expenses for international travel, accommodation, and in-country logistics. The consultant is expected to provide their own equipment and software for data collection and analysis, as well as pay for their own insurance including during travel.

10. Consultant Qualifications

The ideal candidate(s), whether an individual consultant or a team/organization, will have:

• A Master’s degree in Social Sciences, Development Studies, or a related field.
• At least 7 years of experience in conducting baseline studies, mid-term reviews, and/or final evaluations for multi-country projects.
• Proven expertise in both quantitative and qualitative research methods.
• Demonstratable experience with evaluations focused on advocacy and policy influencing is required. Applicants are asked to provide examples of similar assignments as part of their proposal submission.
• Experience working in conflict-affected or post-conflict settings.
• Experience refining monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) strategies and results frameworks.
• Experience with the IOB Evaluation Quality Criteria in highly preferred.
• Excellent communication, facilitation skills and intercultural skills, as well as the ability to engage with diverse stakeholders.
• Proven ability to manage highly confidential and sensitive information through a protection lens.
• Experience managing project evaluations in complex dynamic and volatile environments, where security and political situation is very fluid.
• Excellent and precise command of English oral and written communication skills, including ability to analyse and present a cogent information both in writing and orally.
• Strong French and/or Arabic oral and written communication skills is also highly preferred.